Asteriod impact

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Asteriod impact

Impact of the Earth by an asteroid 1km in diameter or greater occurs roughly once every 600,000 years and would have global consequences (McGuire 2002, pg 98). Potentially given enough warning nuclear weapons could be used to deflect such an incoming asteroid.

Leverage Factor

Guess such an impact might kill 20-80% of planet's population.

NASA currently spends $4m/year mapping near Earth asteroids (Bostrom & Cirkovic 2008 pg. 187). Guesstimate that increasing this budget to $10m might increase the chance that we have sufficient time to do something about an asteroid that is on a collision course by 10-20%.

Project	Cost	Real world outcome	Outcome estimates	Economic value in Western terms
Prevent asteroid impact	$6m/year	10-20% chance save 20-80% of global population in event of 1 in 600,000/year event	Save 10-20% x 20-80% x 7b x 1 / 600,000 years lives	$470m-3.7b

Leverage Factor

80 - 600