We will consider HIV prevention work in HIV endemic sub-Saharan Africa. Cost effectiveness varies by a factor of at least 30 between different interventions.

We consider HIV prevention cost-effectiveness: a systematic review (2009):

• Generalized mass media campaign: $3/DALY
• Injection drug users harm-reduction: $97/case averted - not considered further since result is for Eastern Europe, not sub-Saharan Africa
• Sex workers STI and condom programs for female sex workers: $3.1-12/DALY averted
• Men circumcision: $181/case averted, $1,269-3,911/case averted, $292/case averted, $176/case averted, $143-356/case averted (over 20 years)
• General population STI treatment: $78/case averted, $321-1,665/case averted
• Sex workers STI, condom, and presumptive treatment: $53-121/DALY averted
• Women female condom: $985/case averted
• HIV positive expectant women prevention of mother to child transmission: $34/DALY averted
• HIV positive breastfeeding mothers provide ART to prevent mother to child transmission: $79/QALY averted
• General population voluntary counseling and testing: $82/DALY averted

We pick the top three interventions: a generalized mass media campaign, sex worker programs, and male circumcision, and compute leverage factors for them.

We estimate that anti-retrovial therapy (ART) is only available to 50% of people that need it (60% of people with HIV are reported as not on ART; but some may not need to be). Funding for global AIDS seems to be flat lining, meaning 50% will die from HIV.