Leverage Factor
Calculations on this page were done using the uncertain.py Python script, in order to tighten up otherwise very broad ranges.
(existential threat probability) = (chance of advanced nanotechnology 50 years out) x (chance accessible to non-state actors) x (chance technology misused) = 50-80% x 50-80% x 100% = 29-56%
Prevent by having centralized carefully controlled labs. Guess controls will reduce the threat by 50-90%. Guestimate cost of enforcing is roughly similar to the cost of nuclear non-proliferation.
Current nuclear non-proliferation programs cost $3b-6b/year (Solutions to the World's Biggest Problems, Bjorn Lomborg, 2007, pp. 209).
| Project | Cost | Real world outcome | Outcome estimates | Economic value in Western terms |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prevent nanoplague | $3b-6b/year | 50-90% chance of eliminating 29-56% chance of an existential threat 50 years out | Save 50-90% x 29-56% x 7b DALYs/year; should really discount 7b world population for 50 years | $110t-260t |
Leverage Factor
25,000 - 70,000