Leverage Factor (average 2006-2011)
Leverage Factor
0
OneWorld Health
OneWorld Health was a non-profit pharmaceutical research company that focused on the diseases of the developing world. Pharmaceutical research is a notoriously expensive and risky venture, and OneWorld health wasn't immune from that risk. If they could have hit a home run however, something which they failed to do, the impact could have been huge.
In 2012, OneWorld Health was merged into PATH as its drug development arm. Both OneWorld Health and PATH are heavily funded by the Gates Foundation, and this merger may have represented frustration with OneWorld Health's performance. Officially it was presented as allowing OneWorld Health to "better scale and accelerate its successful drug development efforts". OneWorld Health now files 990's as PATH Drug Solutions, making it possible to continue to follow the costs of OneWorld Health's original drug development program. Annual expenses starting in 2001 were $0m, $1m, $2m, $6m, $15m, $23m, $26m, $30m, $22m, $18m, $14m, $12m, $9m (for 2013). Or $178m so far. This suggests that in order to be guaranteed of hitting a home run in the drug development business takes significant capital.
The last OneWorld Health product, anti-diarrheals, continues under development at PATH, but it is too early in the development pipeline to assess.
Leverage Factor (2009-2011)
Pharmaceutical development is a multi-year process and OneWorld Health didn't bring any products to market in 2009-2011.
Leverage Factor (2008)
Malaria results in 300m acute infections and 1m deaths per year.
OneWorld Health brought to market synthetic Artemesinin used for treating malaria. Unfortunately, they appear to have been unable to get the cost of production down significantly below that of conventionally produced Artemesinin. As such they have positioned themselves as providing a drug stockpile to buffer world demand, but it isn't clear how much societal value this adds. For back of the envelope calculation purposes we will consider this a failure rather than a partial success. Failures are to be expected in the pharmaceutical industry, and they need to be factored in to any assessment along with the successes.
| Project | Cost | Real world outcome | Outcome estimates | Economic value in Western terms |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semi-synthetic artemesinin to treat malaria | $40m | Project failed to bring price down sufficiently; goal was to reduce the price of artemesinin from $2.20/course to something more affordable | Project deemed a failure | 0 |
Leverage Factor
0 (had 30-80% chance of 25,000 - 250,000)
Leverage Factor (2007)
Pharmaceutical development is a multi-year process and OneWorld Health didn't bring any products to market in 2007.
Leverage Factor (2006)
Visceral leishmaniasis is a neglected disease that effects 500k people/year and is fatal if not treated.
OneWorld Health has developed Paromomycin intramuscular injection for treating visceral leishmaniasis. Total cost of treatment, in Bihar, India, is $40/patient, only 20% of which is the cost of the drug. Unfortunately for OneWorld Health, while Paromomycin was being trialed, another new drug Miltefosin was developed that is administered orally and has a total cost of $100-$150. Miltefosin is not entirely successful however, due to resistance. The best available drug, Ambisome, is unfortunately very expensive. The low cost of Paromomycin means it might still have some impact.
| Project | Cost | Real world outcome | Outcome estimates | Economic value in Western terms |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paromomycin to treat visceral leishmaniasis | $15m-25m | Reduce cost of treatment from $100-150 down to perhaps $40 | Paromomycin appears to have been abandoned by PATH | 0 |
Leverage Factor
20,000 - 250,000