Global Catastrophic Risks
| GCR event (1b+ deaths) | current annual probability | annual probability in 50 years time | annual cost to prevent | cost / GCR event prevented | cost / DALY (assume 1b deaths; 20 time discounted DALYs / life saved) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artificial intelligence | 0.00001 | 0.2 | $4b | $20b | $1 | technology exists x hostile x prob. GCR = 5% x 20% x 0.1% (today) = 100% x 20% x 100% (future); prevention involves raising awareness of researchers / prob. awareness improves situation = $1b / 0.25; raising awareness is cheaper than preventing nuclear war |
| Nanoplague | 0 | 0.25 | $40b | $160b | $8 | replicators gone wild; technology exists x technology accessible x technology mis-used = 50% x 50% x 100%; prevention involves agreement on centralization of labs; similar cost to preventing nuclear war |
| Asteroid impact | 0.0000017 | $10m | $6t | $300 | 1 in 600,000 year event; detection cost only; NASA spends $4m/year mapping NEO | |
| Bioterrorism | 0 | 0.005 | $40b | $8t | $400 | first attacks not catastrophic cause global regulation of technology; prob attack x prob. GCR = 10% x 5%; prevention involves agreement on centralization of labs; similar cost to preventing nuclear war |
| Nuclear war | 0.002 | $40b | $20t | $1,000 | prob. war x prob. GCR = 2% x 10%; US spent $8b/year under START treaty | |
| Biowarfare | 0 | 0.005 | $100b | $20t | $1,000 | extinction part of MAD doctrine; prob of war x prob. GCR = 1% x 50%; higher cost than preventing nuclear war since harder to police |
| Plague | 0.001 | $350b | $350t | $17,500 | prob. plague x prob. GCR = 5% x 2%; influenza only killed 50m in 1918; smallpox might kill 1b but would be bioterrorism/biowarfare; feel antibiotic resistance wouldn't lead to 1b deaths; prevention: vaccine costs x population = $50 x 7b | |
| Super eruption | 0.00002 | - | - | - | ||
| Massive lava flow | 0.000000032 | - | - | - | 8 in 250m years | |
| Accelerator black hole | 0.000001 | - | - | - | Conservative, probably more like 1e-9 | |
| Accelerator strangelet disaster | 0.000001 | - | - | - | Conservative, probably more like 1e-9 | |
| Gamma ray burst | 0.00000001 | - | - | - | ||
| Cosmic rays | 0.0000000003 | - | - | - | ||
| Extra-terrestrial micro-organisms | 0.0000000001 | - | - | - | ||
| Comet impact | ? | - | - | - | ||
| Universe simulation shutdown | ? | - | - | - | ||
| Brighter sun (runaway greenhouse effect) | 0 | - | - | - | ||
| Supernova | 0 | - | - | - | ||
| Alien aggression | 0 | - | - | - | assume aliens are distant |